Archive for February, 2012

Economic model: Obama wins election despite Florida loss

Monday, February 27th, 2012

The sour economy may not be bitter enough to keep President Barack Obama from a sweet victory in November. And he might just do it without the benefit of Florida’s 29 electoral votes, according to an election forecast released today by Moody’s Analytics.

Moody’s Analytics, the economic reserach arm of Moody’s Corporation, predicts the president will capture 303 electoral votes, more than the 270 needed, to 235 for the yet-to-be-determined Republican challenger.

As for Florida, it’s rated as one of the three tossup states. Moody’s Analytics projects Obama will lose by an eyelash here with 49.8 percent of the vote. The other tossups are Virginia and Ohio, where the president is slightly favored.

Moody’s Analytics models its presidential forecast based on factors of economic growth. They concluded that jobs and income growth will be high enough to push Obama over the finish line. Moody says the results could change if actual growth is less than forecast and plans to rerun its model between now and the election.

- Scott Bihr

$6 gas claim fuels Florida buzz

Friday, February 24th, 2012

$6 a gallon gasoline in Florida? The mere thought is enough to make you park the car in the garage for good. But that’s what U.S. Rep. Ron Paul claimed this week and it has created quite a buzz.

 Here’s what happened: The Republican presidential contender from Texas made his startling claim in Wednesday night’s debate in Mesa, Ariz. That declaration was debunked the next day by PolitiFact Florida. The fact-checking organization, run by The Tampa Bay Times and Miami Herald, found only two gas stations that even approached Paul’s assertion: one charging $5.79 and another $5.69, both near Walt Disney World in Orlando. The state average was $3.70 a gallon, according to GasBuddy.com.

Athough gas prices are undeniably on the rise, PolitiFact’s findings are good news for drivers in the Fort Myers-Cape Coral area and are confirmed by AAA. The average price for a regular gallon of gas here was $3.74 on Friday.

- Scott Bihr

 

PolitiFact: Mack’s conservative claim ‘Mostly True’

Wednesday, February 22nd, 2012

U.S. Rep. Connie Mack IV, R-Fort Myers, claims he has a conservative voting record and PolitiFact concurs.

The fact-checking outfit, run by The Tampa Bay Times and Miami Herald, rated Mack’s statement “I have a very conservative voting record” as ”Mostly True” on their Truth-O-Meter. 

Mack, the front-runner for the GOP nomination in the U,.S. Senate race, was responding to the charge that some conservatives question his conservative chops. The query was asked of the congressman by the blog The Shark Tank.

PolitiFact concluded that there were times Mack didn’t toe the conservative line (stem cell research, Arizona’s immigration law). But based on his voting record compared to other members in Congress and his consistently high marks from conservative organizations, Mack’s statement was rated “Mostly True.”

Mack is facing former Sen. George LeMieux and businessman Mike McCalister in the Aug. 14 GOP primary. The winner will face incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson in the November general election.

- Scott Bihr

Poll: Rubio top VP pick

Monday, February 20th, 2012

GOP rising star Marco Rubio continues to shine brightly in the eyes of voters.

Rubio, a freshman senator from West Miami, is the top choice for the No. 2 spot on the Republican ticket, according to a poll released today and reported by USA TODAY.

Rubio received the most mentions (66)  in a survey by Farleigh Dickinson University. Current presidential contender Rick Santorum was second (56 mentions) followed by New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (47).

The result comes as no surprise as Rubio has consistently appeared atop wish lists for the vice-presidential slot by voters and presidential hopefuls alike. But their dream isn’t likely to materialize. Rubio has repeatedly said that he has no interest in the No. 2 spot on the Republican ticket.

- Scott Bihr

Mack and Nelson tied, poll finds

Tuesday, February 14th, 2012

U.S. Rep. Connie Mack IV and incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson are in a dead heat in Florida’s 2012 Senate race, according to a poll released today.

Mack and Nelson are tied at 41 percent apiece in the Rasumussen Reports survey of 500 likely Florida voters. The poll has a margin of error of 4.5 percent and is in keeping with other recent polls that have shown a tight race.

The Fort Myers Republican fares better than his GOP primary challengers against Nelson. Former U.S. Sen. George LeMieux trails 45-35 percent while retired Army Col. Mike McCallister lags 43-37 percent.

- Scott Bihr