The spate of Florida Republican presidential primary polls released over the past two days have consistently shown Mitt Romney with an  8-9 point lead over Newt Gingrich. The lone exception is the Dixie Strategies/The News-Press/First Coast News poll.
Our poll has Gingrich leading Romney by an eyelash — 35.46 percent to 35.08.
Could our poll be right and all the others wrong? Maybe.
In polling terminology, our poll is what’s called an outlier (for a set of numerical data, any value that is markedly smaller or larger than other values).Â
 However, there is one factor that works in our favor. The News-Press poll’s sample size (2,567 likely voters) is three to four times larger than that of other pollsters and thus our poll has a very small margin of error (1.93 percent) with a confidence level of 95 percent.
In other words, the confidence interval associated with the sample in our poll is such that 95 percent of the time results will be within 1.93 percent of the “true values.” True values refer to the results obtained if it were possible to interview every “likely” voter in the state.
Most pollsters don’t interview large sample sizes because of the time and cost involved. Therefore, they  have a larger margin of error, usually in the 4-5 percentage range.
In layman’s terms, the more people you talk to the less likely you’re going to be wrong.
 Our poll shows a tossup and Romney could be leading, when you factor in the margin of error of 1.93 percent.  Romney’s support could be as high as 37.01 percent and Gingrich’s as low as 33.53 percent.
 Conversely, the other polls could be overvaluing Romney’s percentage and undervaluing Gingrich’s, within their respective margins of error.
 So who’s right? We will find out Tuesday night.
- Scott Bihr
Tags: Florida Primary, GOP, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Republicans, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul
I know you are so right. I’ve been tweeting all weekend how is it possible that Newt is drawing crowds of 1000’s & Romney crowds of 100’s yet Romney is leading? Who are they polling?
Newt wants to continue Reagan’s legacy http://bit.ly/h0jNr3
Appreciate you explaining the complexities of polling… I hope you\’re right about Newt’s numbers!
The media are only reporting the big double digit margin polls. Two other latest polls claim Romney margins coming back down to 7% and 5%. Hopefully the Newt roller coaster dips to a win like it did in South Carolina.
If this poll reflects more reality, it is certainly good news!
Newt 2012 !!!
From other sources, I read this poll was conducted in the Jan 23-25 time period—closer to when it was near neck and neck in the other polls. The polls have been really volatile, but more confidence of Newt recovering is given by the two latest I mentioned earlier…Insider Advantage and PPP…mid single digit Romney leads, rather than the big double digits of earlier polls the media is adhering to.
If you support Santorum or Paul, please consider a vote for Newt. Romney must be stopped inorder to be able to fight another day.
Our household believes that America cannot sustain another 4 years of Obama. We believe that Newt, regardless of all the media slamming of Newt, is the true future of our great United States of America. I am confounded by the people who claim that Obama has been a great president. WHAT COUNTRY ARE THEY LIVING IN BESIDES CRAZYLAND?
I hope you are right. I’ve been on an emotional roller-coaster here in Texas. But even if he doesn’t get Florida I know he’ll keep on keeping on. But like Susie said, how can he be second to Mittens when his crowds are in the 1000s to Mitten’s 100 or so?
Thanks for explaining a bit of how polling works and how numbers can be wrong so many times. Still, what no polling can take into account is momentum pushing one candidate up or another down right up until the moment the voter votes. I decided a few weeks ago on Newt, giving up Ron Paul. I can’t see anything my mind before voting tomorrow in central Florida.
We shall see. Will make for quite a headline, just don’t pull a “Dewey”.
I was at the Tampa Rally today, I’m here to tell you that the enthusiasm and the commitment from the crowd was exilarating. Michael Reagan was a perfect start to an awesome Rally, with Herman Cain energizing all of us to the Speakers message. The Speaker and Callista were inspiring grace in the face of adversity, having to be subjected to the Romney Machine. Newt Gingrich will WIN Florida because the People want him. Unlike Romney aka Plastic Man who is fake and hollow and does not have our interest at heart only his OWN. It is so evident by all the smearing and out right lies and innuendos that he is reponsible for pastering all over the airwaves and in print.
WE SEE THROUGH PLASTIC MAN! You are no better for us than Obama! Florida go out and VOTE for Newt, Newt, Newt. If you have questions go to Newt.org and read and listen to the truth.
Glad to hear about this poll and how it is taken. It does seem strange that just seven days ago Newt was leading and now Romney has a huge lead. How can it change that quickly? It never used to in the past. Even in 2008. What is going on?
Excellent explanation of a confidence interval. Now… when your poll is shown to be drastically wrong at the end of the evening, and you come to the realization that you sampled a group of people that does not resemble the actual Republican voter-population (though you sampled that unrepresentative group REALLY WELL. Good on you!)… then you, my friend, will have learned something about “the complexities of polling”. And if you fire your pollster, then you will have proven to the rest of us that you learned something.
what a joke poll… lulz… very inaccurate… in your face Newt supporters..
Romney by a landslide in Florida. I don’t care who wins — as long as it’s not Speaker Skanky Pants.